Presentations and Publications

Fenton, N. E., D. Lagnado and M. Neil (2012). "A General Structure for Legal Arguments Using Bayesian Networks."  to appear Cognitive Science. (An extended draft version of this paper can be found here).

Lagnado, D. A., N. E. Fenton and M. Neil (2012). "Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning." Argument and Computation, to appear.

Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., 'On limiting the use of Bayes in presenting forensic evidence',  Extended draft available here.

Constantinou, A. , Fenton, N.E., "Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules  for assessing probabilistic football forecasting models", Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 8 (1), Article 1, 2012. Preprint draft here.

Fenton, N. E. (2011). "Science and law: Improve statistics in court." Nature 479: 36-37.  Paper on Nature online website is here. An extended draft on which this was based is here.

Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., 'Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks', Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy 36, 114-151, 2011 (extended preprint draft here).

Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., 'The use of Bayes and causal modelling in decision making, uncertainty and risk' UPGRADE, the Journal of CEPIS (Council of European Professional Informatics Societies), 12(5), 10-21, 2011. Published verion here.

Fenton, N. E., M. Neil,  and D. Lagnado “Modelling mutually exclusive causes in Bayesian networks”, April 2011. (draft available  here).

Yet, B., Perkins Z.,Marsh, W., Fenton, N.E., "Towards a Method of Building Causal Bayesian Networks for Prognostic Decision Support",  ProBioMed 11, Bled, Slovenia, July 2011, (draft here).

Neil, M, Chen X,  Fenton, N E, "Optimizing the Calculation of Conditional Probability Tables in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Binary Factorization", to appear IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 2012


Fenton, N. E. (2011). "Rational software developers as pathological code hackers" in The Dark Side of Software Engineering: Evil on Computing Projects. (Eds Rost, J. and Glass, R. L.), IEEE Computer Society Press, ISBN: 978-0-470-59717-0, pp 264-268

Fenton, N. and M. Neil (2010). "Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments." Journal of Biomedical Informatics 43: 485-495. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbi.2010.02.00

Neil, M., Marquez, D. and Fenton, N. E. (2010). "Improved Reliability Modeling using Bayesian Networks and Dynamic Discretization." Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 95(4), 412-425 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2009.11.012

Hearty, P., Fenton, N., Marquez, D., and Neil, M., Predicting Project Velocity in XP using a Learning Dynamic Bayesian Network Model. IEEE Trans Software Eng, 2009. 35(1): 124-137. doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/TSE.2008.76

Fenton, N. E. (2009). Position Statement on the Role and Future of Search Based Software Engineering. 1st International Symposium on Search Based Software Engineering. Windsor, UK, IEEE Computer Society: xxii-xxiii.

Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks (Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics. 2008: Lausanne, Switzerland).

Fenton, N.E., Neil, M., and Marquez, D., Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O, Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2008. 222(O4): p. 701-712

Fenton, N.E., Neil, M., Marsh, W., Hearty, P., Radlinski, L., and Krause, P., On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets. Empirical Software Engineering, 2008. 13: p. 499-537. 10.1007/s10664-008-9072-x

Norman Fenton's invited keynote talk at Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007: "Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability" (by Fenton NE, Neil M, Marquez D)

Norman Fenton's invited keynote talk at the IEEE ICSE PROMISE 07 Workshop, Minneapolis, 20 May 2007: "New Directions in Software Metrics" (will be based on this earlier keynote at CIO 2006).

Martin Neil's accepted paper at Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007: "A new Bayesian Network approach to Reliability modelling" (by Neil M, Marquez D, Fenton NE).

Norman Fenton's acepted paper at the IEEE ICSE PROMISE 07 Workshop, Minneapolis, 20 May 2007: "Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction" (by Fenton NE, Neil M, Marsh W, Hearty P, Krause P, Radliński Ł.). The dataset and model associated with this paper can be found here.

Fenton and Neil's seminal work on ranked nodes, to appear in IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering: "Using Ranked nodes to model qualitative judgements in Bayesian Networks" (by Fenton NE, Neil M, Caballero J)

Neil and Tailor's seminal work on dynamic discretisation, to appear in the Statistics and Computing Journal "Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability Inference in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Dynamic Discretisation", (by Neil M, Tailor M and Marquez D). A new extension of this work is to appear in Reliability Engineering & System Safety: "Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks" (by Neil M , Tailor M, Marquez D, Fenton NE, and Hearty P)

Khodakarami's work on BNs for project scheduling, to appear in the Project Management Journal: “Project Scheduling: Improved approach to incorporate uncertainty using Bayesian Networks” (by Khodakarami V, Fenton NE, Neil M)