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If you have purchased a copy of Fenton and Neil's book you can download your copy of AgenaRisk Lite  here.

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Fenton and Neil's book: "Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks" (published Nov 2012)


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Technology Articles

Note: All technology articles are in PDF format.

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An Introduction to Bayesian Networks

This presentation provides an introduction to Bayesian Networks and the various domains in which they can be used. In particular, it describes the application of Bayesian Networks to risk mapping, information fusion and other artificial intelligence problems... [Click here for the full article]


Agena's Bayesian Network Technology

This article focuses on how Agena has taken Bayesian Network (BN) technology to a new level that opens up the power of Bayesian Networks to a much wider range of users and applications. This technology is implemented in the AgenaRisk toolset... [Click here for the full article]


AgenaRisk Overview

This presentation offers an overview of AgenaRisk and describes how AgenaRisk can be used to visualise risk and model uncertainty... [Click here for the full article]


Combining evidence in risk analysis using Bayesian networks

This article is about helping people who make critical decisions improve the quality of their judgements. We provide a brief introduction to Bayesian Networks and use an example in safety assessment. We show how BNs enable decision-makers to combine different types of evidence (including subjective judgements) to provide quantitative, auditable arguments. By using state-of-the-art BN technology it is now easy for decision-makers to develop solutions that scale up to the most complex types of problems... [Click here for the full article]


Measuring Operational Risk using Bayesian Networks

This article describes how AgenaRisk can help measure and control operational risk in financial institutions as part of the Advanced Measurement Approach under the Basel II draft regulations... [Click here for the full article]


Improved Software Defect Prediction

This presentation describes how risk maps (Bayesian Networks) can be used to predict numbers of defects in software projects. It describes a highly successful case study involving Philips... [Click here for the full article]


Using AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition to deploy risk models across an organisation

Once you have developed your risk models the natural next step is to deploy them as part of an enterprise level risk application for use throughout your organisation. AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition is designed specifically to meet this crucial requirement by providing a software development kit ... [Click here for the full article]


Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability Inference in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Dynamic Discretisation

This is the seminal work on dynamic discretisation to appear in the Statistics and Computing Journal. Read it all here


Using Ranked nodes to model qualitative judgements in Bayesian Networks

This paper (to appear in IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering) describes the technical details of the seminal work on ranked nodes that is integrated into AgenaRisk. Read it all here.


Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

An extension of the dynamic discretisation work to appear in Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Read it all here


A new Bayesian Network approach to Reliability modelling

Presents a new, effective and flexible modelling method for reliability assessment that scales up to large, complex dynamic systems. Read it all here.


Project Scheduling: Improved approach to incorporate uncertainty using Bayesian Networks

This paper, to appear in the Project Management Journal, describes how BNs can be used as a replacement for more traditional project scheduling tools. Read it all here.