Outreach in Computer Science
Bayesian solutions to real-world risk problems
A classic American
sixties game show, hosted
by Monty Hall, involved contestants choosing one of three doors. Behind
one of the doors was a valuable prize such as a new car.
the other two doors was something relatively worthless like a
banana. After the contestant chooses one of the three doors Monty Hall
(who knows which door has the prize behind it) always reveals a door
(other than the one chosen) that has a worthless item behind it. He now
poses the question to the contestant:
"Do you want to switch doors
or stick to your orginal choice?"
people assume that there is no benefit in switching, i.e. that by
sticking to their orginal choice they have a 50% chance of
for an explanation of why they are wrong.
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Making Sense of Probability: Fallacies, Myths and Puzzles