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Agena Newsletter Number 13


AgenaRisk: Bayesian Network and Simulation Technology for Risk Analysis and Decision Support

AgenaRisk Professional Version 7.0,  released 14 May 2016

We are pleased to announce the release of Version 7.0 of AgenaRisk. As usual Professional licence holders, with a current annual subscription, are entitled to a free upgrade (simply follow the download instructions provided in the email that was sent with your license file). Version 7.0 includes the following important new functionality:

  • Table learning from data and expert judgment (see Section 10 of the Manual). This enables you to automatically learn node probability tables from a spreadsheet file and incorporate as much or as little expert judgment as you wish.  In all cases learning can be performed even when there are ‘missing data’ in the spreadsheet. The learning process is performed using an Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm and AgenaRisk currently supports table learning for both Boolean and Labelled nodes. See this simple tutorial video of this new functionality.
  • Compound sum analysis (see Section 11 of the Manual). This enables you to automatically compute the compund  'total value' distribution where there are events with a frequency distribution, and where each of these events has an associated severity distribution. The severity distribution might represent an individual loss or profit event, the time to failure of a component, or some other variable. The frequency would be the number of times these events might be expected to occur over a defined period of time. For example, an insurer may hold a portfolio of insurance policies where any of these may involve a claim – the frequency of claims will be uncertain and the severity of each claim will be uncertain too. What the insurer would like to know is the total claim amount as a function of the frequency of claims and the severity of each claim. Mathematically this problem is solved using a process called convolution, which AgenaRisk does automatically by performing arithmetical operations on simulation nodes.
  • New example models  including "Paternity testing", "House buying", "DNA testing with errors", "How to transform a continuous node to a ranked node", "Beta distribution parameter learning",  "Table Learning", "Compound Sum".

There are also improvements to efficiency and many minor bug fixes.

There are some changes to the Free and Lite versions (in terms of restrictions in functionality).  See  the new full list of version comparison and features).

Remember to join the new Users Group if you have not already done so. As well as answering user questions, this is where we now post tips and tricks, video tutorials, and case studies.

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