Siemens report on their experience of using Bayesian Nets and AgenaRisk
Siemens presented the results of using Bayesian
Nets for software project estimation and trade-off analysis at the
Sixth International Conference on Quality Software (QSIC'06) Read the full paper here
Bayesian Study Finds That Higher Batting Averages Don't Always Mean Better Hitting Ability
Jesse Frey, a mathematician at Villanova,
recently completed a study that uses Bayesian analysis to determine
which batting averages in major league baseball are the best indicators
of ability. The full story is here
Norman Fenton to give keynote talks at two international conferences.
Norman Fenton has been invited to give the
keynote address to the IEEE ICSE-PROMISE Workshop in Minneapolis
on 20 May, and a keynote address at the Mathematical Methods in
Reliability Conference (MMR 07) in Glasgow in July. Full papers, together
with a number of other new publications are here
You can download a free evaluation of AgenaRisk
which contains the complete functionality, here.
If A is half of B why can't I conclude that B is two times A?
Suppose you known that, on average,
50% of the trucks that start out in a military campaign are fully
operational at the end. Then you would be correct in deducing that, if
you start with 100 trucks you will end up, on average, with 50 that are
fully operational. But, what if you know that you ended a campaign with
50 operational trucks. Then is it correct to assume that, on average,
you started with 100? This was a simplified version of a real problem
that one of Agena's clients had to tackle and the answer (surprisingly
to them) was NO. This has everything to do with the way we reason
with prior assumptions (this reasoning lies at the heart of the
so-called Bayesian approach to probability).
Click here for the full article, which is one of a series looking at probability puzzles and fallacies. You can see more here.
Software - a risky business?
|What exactly is it that makes software such an inherently risky business,
and why are its costs so difficult to judge? The problem has been known about for
decades, but the answer has always seemed elusive, at least until now. The Risk
Assessment and Decision Analysis research group (RADAR) at Queen Mary,
University of London, think they have the answer.
for the full article which was written by Peter Hearty a PhD student at
Queen Mary who is funded by EPSRC and an Agena CASE award. This essay
won runner-up prize in the EPSRC Essay Competition
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