Bayesian Analysis Helps Avoid
Fatalities in Clinical Drug Trials
interact in unpredictable ways, and most important, they may simply
cause different biochemical reactions from one individual to the next.
Care to guess what the No. 1 cause of acute liver failure is
in this country? Acetaminophen, the pain reliever in Tylenol. Click here for the full article in
Neil presented a paper called ‘Using Bayesian Networks and Simulation for Data Fusion and Risk Analysis’ at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop
"Workshop on Computational Models of Risks to Infrastructure",
Primosten, Croatia, May 9 -13, 2006. Download
Norman Fenton submitted a paper
Bayesian Networks for Software
Project Risk Assessment using Dynamic Discretisation’ to
the SET 2006 – IFIP working Conference for Software Engineering
Techniques. Conference details
can be found here. Download
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil submitted a paper entitled ‘Using Ranked nodes to model qualitative judgements
in Bayesian Networks’
to the IEEE Transaction on Knowledge Engineering.
You can download a free evaluation of AgenaRisk
which contains the complete functionality, here.
by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil
destroying the meteor in the film Armageddon, Bruce Willis saved the
world. The probability of the meteor strike was so large, and the
consequences so great, that nothing much else mattered except to try to
prevent the strike. Combining the ‘probability’ and
‘impact’ of a risk in order to define its
‘size’ is standard practice. But in most cases
irrational, and it certainly would not have explained to Bruce Willis
and his crew why their mission made sense. To get rational measures of
risk you need a causal model (‘risk map’) that
triggers, controls, events, mitigants and consequences.
for the full paper.
Integration and Customisation: AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition
The AgenaRisk Desktop version offers powerful modelling and analysis capabilities which are sufficient for many users. But what if you want to build your own applications that use AgenaRisk's technology or connect AgenaRisk to your corporate database?
The AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition is a powerful and flexible software development kit that allows users to customise AgenaRisk and integrate it with existing applications and databases. More information on AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition is available here.
Managing Uncertainty in Microelectronic Obsolescence
QinetiQ are approaching the end of a three-year
project using Bayesian analysis to manage the uncertainty associated with monitoring and dealing
with obsolescence in microelectronics components. They used the AgenaRisk engine to do a cost-benefit analysis
of different possible ways of dealing with obsolescence incidents.
to read the full showcase.
Using Ranked Nodes in AgenaRisk
Ranked nodes are a very powerful way of encoding
the probabilistic relationship between a set of parent nodes and a child node. If all the nodes are defined on subjective scales and there is little
quantitative data available to build the child NPT (node probability table), consider making the nodes ranked and then take advantage of
a number of special and very useful mathematical expressions.
Click here to read the full showcase.
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